Connect with us

Farm & Ranch

[AgriLife Today] Marketing opportunities may materialize for wheat despite low prices, high stocks

Published

on

By: Kay Ledbetter

Writer: Kay Ledbetter, 806-677-5608, skledbetter@ag.tamu.edu
Contact: Dr. Mark Welch, 979-845-8011, JMWelch@tamu.edu

AMARILLO – The U.S. has a pile of wheat to dig through this year, and that means lower prices. But a Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service economist said world circumstances could present marketing opportunities in the coming year.

Dr. Mark Welch, AgriLife Extension grains marketing economist in College Station, spoke at the recent Texas Wheat Symposium during the annual Amarillo Farm and Ranch Show in Amarillo.

“We will be moving in the right direction going forward,” Welch said. “The strong increase we are seeing in grain consumption around the world will help us move through some of this oversupply.”

He said grain consumption has risen over the years due to growing average incomes in some countries where the middle class has expanded.

“Projected economic growth is around 3 percent in a good portion of the world, including Asia, Africa and South America, and that’s good for what we do,” Welch said. “Wheat use is growing at 1 pound per person per year, in addition to population growth of about 1 percent each year.”

Heavy wheat supplies are a result of four consecutive record wheat crops, which has only happened one other time in history, he said.

“We currently have a 124-day surplus of wheat on hand, while carryover stocks of the other crops are very close to their average,” Welch said. “Given the strong consumption base, wheat is the only one showing a strong supply while the others show vulnerability in the market.”

He said at this point only China is showing potential for a production problem in 2017 across the world. China is a net importer of all major commodities, so this could present some marketing opportunities for U.S. wheat.

The U.S. continues to see strong export sales in spite of large local supplies and a strong dollar, Welch said.

“In 2017, the most important question will be acreage. We planted the lowest winter wheat acreage in 100 years last year and expect even fewer for 2017.”

With a drier-than-normal weather outlook, along with warmer-than-average temperatures in the High Plains, Welch said it is setting up to be a year of marketing opportunities for wheat producers.

“I expect some degree of lower production worldwide,” he said. “That combined with continued growth in consumption points to somewhat higher prices in 2017 compared to 2016, though likely not enough to cover total costs of production.”

“I expect wheat prices to be about $1 per bushel higher next year if we get a cut in production and the wheat-to-corn price relationship returns to more normal levels. Wheat is currently priced much lower relative to corn compared to historical averages.

“But it does present us with some marketing opportunities,” he said. “The big money players are currently betting on higher prices turning the market around.”

Welch said producers must know what they have in their crop and be able to recognize the situation when it occurs if they want to be able to take advantage of any opportunities that materialize.

“Nobody really knows where prices are going to go. Economic theory teaches that prices will fall back to the cost of production, which means you need to be the lowest-cost producer. That and monitor the market for opportunities.”

 

-30-

LikeTweet

Find more stories, photos, videos and audio at http://today.agrilife.org

Continue Reading

Farm & Ranch

Grazing North Texas: Who’s Your Neighbor?

Published

on

By

By Tony Dean, tonydean.tx1@gmail.com

Who qualifies as your neighbor? Webster says it is someone who lives nearby, but it isn’t always that simple. Is my neighbor the person next door, or someone in the next county? It could be both.

Our neighbors are an important part of life on the ranch and the grazing lands we share. Many of us find comfort in knowing another human being is somewhere in our neck of the woods, and that someone nearby cares what happens to us.

Being a good neighbor is part of being a productive and responsible rancher, so let’s look at some of the qualities that make a good one.

Protect your neighbor

Watch out for him.

The cattle business is dangerous. Almost everything we work with is bigger and faster than we are. A mad cow can turn an otherwise wonderful day into a disaster. Sooner or later, all of us will need some help.

The average age of today’s rancher keeps climbing. Be aware of your neighbors’ ages, limitations or disabilities, and keep an eye out for anything outside their normal routine.

More women own and operate ranches today, too. Some may suddenly find themselves responsible for parts of the operation that a spouse or family member used to handle. As neighbors, we can be a valuable backup system, helping one another learn, adjust and keep the operation moving.

And then there is wildfire. It can be on us in minutes. You may need to help move a family down the road to safety or move livestock out of harm’s way. Have a plan in mind before the emergency happens.

Be a friend

Some of us who live in the country drive to town for work or make regular trips for other reasons. Others are stay-at-home ranchers, and life can get a little lonely. A friendly smile, a phone call or an invitation to lunch can mean more than we realize.

Things aren’t always wine and roses at the ranch. Few occupations ask people to juggle such a mix of complex markets, weather, natural resource management, livestock management and countless other issues.

Spirits can get low. If we are listening, we can hear and feel the stress in someone’s life. On those days, you have a chance to be a special kind of friend.

Help your neighbor

Have you ever tried to load a trailer by yourself and needed someone to stand in the gate for a couple of minutes? All of us will need help at some point, and our neighbors should be among the people we can call.

Do your best to be there when needed, and your neighbors will likely be there when it is your turn to ask. Sometimes it will be a small job. Other times, it will be a big one. It doesn’t matter. We help our neighbors.

It’s also smart to make sure someone nearby knows your ranching program and understands the land you use. At some point, one of you may need to take care of business for the other for several days.

Be cooperative

There is no end to the situations that can involve more than one family. Fencing, road maintenance and livestock getting where they don’t belong are common ones.

If you don’t handle these things with a friendly, cooperative attitude, they can create problems between neighbors that last for years.

Good fences are something to be proud of. Nothing is gained by years of bickering. Reaching an agreement may be hard at times, but neighbors should be able to work things out. Clear your head, use common sense and come up with an answer everyone can live with.

If your cattle get mixed up with your neighbor’s, make it a priority to separate them as soon as possible. It is rude to let your cattle stay in your neighbor’s pasture eating his grass while you do nothing about it.

One good way to handle strays is for the rancher whose pasture they are in to pen his own cattle along with the strays. The other rancher can then load his cattle and take them home. Afterward, both ranchers can work together on any fence repairs.

By the way, a gate between neighbors is almost always a good policy.

Take ownership

The only way to avoid mistakes is to do nothing. But it isn’t in us as ranchers to sit around and watch the world go by. We are men and women of action, so things are going to go sideways from time to time.

When that happens, and it will, own your mistakes. Decisive action can prevent misunderstandings and make a problem go away much faster.

Be honest, and never, ever lie.

Be patient

We all have bad days. When your neighbor is a little grouchy, he or she probably has something weighing on them.

That is a chance to be a good neighbor. Be patient. Be a good listener. Help your neighbor through the turmoil if you can.

Respect property boundaries

Trespassing is wrong, illegal and rude. Never do it except in an emergency.

In the Southwest, where we live, land ownership is considered a sacred right, and it is a right available to anyone. With ownership comes an expectation of privacy and respect. When you trespass, you violate those rights.

And yes, it is trespassing when you cross a fence to fish or hunt without permission. Texas is a private-property state, which makes respecting these boundaries especially important.

That doesn’t mean you can’t have an understanding with your neighbors that lets you onto their land. Many good friends and neighbors work together on one another’s ranches, but both parties should always communicate well.

You have a cell phone. Use it any time you doubt whether you have the right to go through the gate. An invitation onto another person’s ranch is a privilege, so don’t abuse it.

Your word

Your word as a rancher, neighbor, man or woman helps define you in your community and throughout your life. Your neighbors want to trust you. They want to know that all they need from you is a handshake and that they can depend on what you say.

It is a blessing to live in North Texas, where people still respect and honor a life lived with truth and love.

A good life to live

Having good neighbors is a great way to live. It brings comfort and enjoyment to life. Sometimes it takes a little extra effort, but a friendly neighborhood, even one that covers many acres, is enjoyable and can help keep all of us safer.

It is worth the effort.

The Bible

The Bible has many references to being a good neighbor. Being a good neighbor was good judgment 2,000 years ago, and it is good judgment today. Jesus made it clear that love should guide a good neighbor.

Leviticus 19:18 tells us to love our neighbors as ourselves. That is a tall order. In Matthew 5:44, Jesus takes it further, telling us to love our enemies and pray for those who persecute us.

Our goal should always be to love one another, lift each other up, and help and protect our neighbors.

All of us face drought, floods, wildfire, tornadoes, low cattle prices, rattlesnakes and feral hogs, so let’s fight the fight together. Stand by your neighbor’s side, and he will stand by yours.

A North Texas minister was recently asked, “What do you do if you have a neighbor who is really hard to love?”

His answer was short and to the point: “Love him anyway.”

Continue Reading

Farm & Ranch

Beyond Crude Protein

Published

on

By

By NTFR Staff

A stack of hay may look good from the outside. The bales may be heavy, green and free of obvious weeds or mold. None of that tells a cattle producer what the hay will provide once it reaches the feed bunk.

Two bales from the same field can differ noticeably in nutrition if they were cut at different stages of maturity, weathered differently or stored under different conditions. The differences grow even larger when you compare hay bought from separate farms or produced in different growing seasons.

A forage analysis takes much of the guesswork out by showing what the hay contains and where you may need to supplement.

Crude protein is often the first number producers check, but it is only one part of the report. Energy, fiber, moisture and possible toxicity concerns can matter just as much when deciding whether a lot of hay suits dry cows, lactating cows, replacement heifers or growing calves.

Reading beyond the protein number

Most forage reports show results on both an “as received” and a dry-matter basis. The as-received column includes the water in the hay. The dry-matter column takes moisture out of the calculation so you can compare feeds with different moisture levels fairly.

For ration planning, the dry-matter values are usually the most useful. If you’re comparing dry hay with silage, cubes or another feed, make the comparison on a dry-matter basis rather than on the numbers as fed.

Moisture still deserves attention. Hay baled too wet is more likely to heat, mold or deteriorate in storage. In severe cases, heating can create a fire risk. Moisture also affects how many pounds of actual nutrients you are buying. A heavy bale isn’t necessarily a nutrient-dense bale if much of its weight is water.

Crude protein, usually listed as CP, estimates the protein in the forage based on its nitrogen content. Protein keeps the rumen microbes that help cattle digest forage working. When forage protein drops too low, intake and digestion may decline because those microbes can’t function as well.

The amount of protein a cow needs changes a great deal through the year. A mature, dry cow in mid-pregnancy needs less than a cow in late pregnancy or early lactation. Young, growing cattle and first-calf heifers may also need more protein than mature dry cows. Hay that is adequate for one group may fall short for another.

Always compare a forage report with the needs of the cattle that will eat the hay. Oklahoma State University notes that cattle requirements vary with weight, age, stage of production, desired gain and milk production. A single protein target can’t describe the needs of an entire herd.

Energy is another major piece of the feeding decision. Many forage reports express energy as total digestible nutrients, or TDN, an estimate of the digestible energy in the feed. Protein supports rumen function and tissue growth, while energy fuels maintenance, pregnancy, milk production and weight gain.

Hay can test well for protein and still come up short on energy. That matters most for cows nearing calving or producing milk. Low-energy hay may leave cattle feeling full without giving them enough nutrition to hold body condition. University of Nebraska Extension stresses evaluating both protein and energy when judging the feeding value of forage.

Fiber measurements help explain why cattle eat one hay readily and less of another. Neutral detergent fiber, or NDF, represents much of the plant’s structural material, including cellulose, hemicellulose and lignin. As NDF rises, cattle generally eat less because bulky, fibrous forage stays in the digestive tract longer.

Acid detergent fiber, or ADF, includes the least digestible parts of the plant. Higher ADF generally means lower digestibility and less available energy. Put simply, high NDF can limit how much cattle eat, and high ADF can mean they get less energy from what they do eat.

Both numbers tend to climb as forage plants mature. Mature hay usually has more stem and less leaf than hay cut earlier. It may still be acceptable feed for animals with lower needs, but it is less likely to support lactating cows or growing cattle without supplementation.

Some reports also include relative feed value, or RFV. This index uses ADF and NDF to compare forage quality, particularly for alfalfa and other legumes. It can help when you compare similar types of hay, but it doesn’t account for every nutrient cattle need. Don’t let RFV replace a closer look at crude protein, energy and the animal’s stage of production.

Depending on the lab package you choose, the report may include minerals. Labs commonly report calcium and phosphorus, but a forage analysis can’t replace a well-designed mineral program. Water quality, other feeds and interactions among minerals all affect mineral needs and availability. Work with an Extension specialist, veterinarian or livestock nutritionist before making major mineral changes.

Nitrate and prussic acid

A standard forage analysis may not include nitrates, and you often have to request that test separately. Nitrate testing is especially important for drought-stressed forage, heavily fertilized fields and crops such as sorghum, sudangrass, sorghum-sudan hybrids, millet, oats and some weeds.

Nitrate can remain in cured hay and doesn’t reliably disappear in storage. Test any hay you suspect of high nitrate before feeding it. Oklahoma State University recommends a laboratory analysis because field screening tests can show that nitrate is present but can’t measure how much.

Prussic acid is a different concern. Unlike nitrate, prussic acid usually dissipates as properly cured hay sits in storage, though suspect forage still needs careful management and professional guidance. Be sure which test you need, and don’t treat the terms nitrate and prussic acid as interchangeable.

Putting the numbers to work

A hay test pays off when it leads to a feeding plan. Once you have the results, you can match the hay to the right class of cattle. Save better hay for replacement heifers, thin cows, late-gestation cows or cows with calves at side. Feed lower-quality hay to mature dry cows with modest requirements.

Testing can also prevent unnecessary supplementation. Without an analysis, you may buy protein tubs, cubes or other supplements your cattle don’t need. The opposite mistake costs just as much. Assuming hay is better than it is can lead to lost body condition, lower milk production, poor breed-back rates and lighter calves.

Visual inspection still matters. Don’t ignore mold, foreign material, weeds, dust or heat damage because a lab report shows acceptable numbers. At the same time, color and appearance can’t reliably predict nutrient content. University of Nebraska notes that forage nutrient values vary widely, which makes average book values a poor substitute for testing the feed you have on hand.

A forage analysis won’t make poor hay better, but it can show you how to use that hay well. For the cost of a test, you get information that can guide hay purchases, cut supplement waste and put each lot of hay where it will do the most good.

The protein number may get the most attention, but it doesn’t tell the whole story. Understanding moisture, TDN, NDF, ADF and potential toxicity gives you a much clearer picture of what is inside the bale.

Continue Reading

Farm & Ranch

Don’t Be Caught Off Guard

Published

on

By

By Savannah Magoteaux

A September rain can be exactly what a North Texas pasture needs, but that flush of green can bring an unwelcome guest.

Fall armyworms are a familiar late-summer and early-fall pest across Texas, and they can do serious damage to pastures and hay fields when conditions are right. Bermudagrass is a common target, but armyworms also feed on small grains, ryegrass and other forage crops. The key is catching them early, before a manageable infestation turns into a field that seems to disappear overnight.

Despite the name, fall armyworms are caterpillars. The adult moths migrate into Texas and lay masses of eggs on grasses, fence posts, buildings and other surfaces. Once the larvae hatch, they start feeding on plants.

Young armyworms are small and hard to spot unless you are actively scouting. As they grow, their appetite climbs. Larger larvae can strip leaves fast, leaving stems behind and cutting into available forage or hay yield.

Look for an inverted, light-colored “Y” on the caterpillar’s head. Mature larvae can reach about 1½ inches long and often have several dark and light stripes running the length of the body.

Armyworms feed most actively during the cooler parts of the day, so early morning and late afternoon are good times to scout. Walk through several areas of the pasture rather than checking only along the edge. Look closely near the soil surface and beneath grass leaves, especially where you see fresh feeding damage.

Scouting matters most after rain or irrigation. New grass growth draws newly hatched larvae, and populations can build quickly when conditions favor them.

Texas A&M AgriLife Extension generally recommends considering treatment in improved pastures when you find about three or more armyworms per square foot. The decision should also weigh the size of the larvae, how much forage is present, the expected hay value and how severe the damage is.

Timing matters. Small armyworms are easier to control than large ones, and an insecticide does less good once the caterpillars are nearly mature and have already eaten much of the forage. If you treat, follow the product label carefully, including grazing and hay-harvest restrictions.

Don’t assume one treatment or one scouting trip will carry a pasture through the season. Fall armyworm moths can keep moving into an area, laying more eggs and starting another generation of larvae. Keep checking fields even after you have controlled an infestation.

For hay producers, an approaching harvest date can also shape the decision. When the crop is close to harvest, cutting the field may be a better option than spraying. The best choice depends on the number and size of the armyworms, how much forage remains and whether the weather allows you to cut hay.

September rain is usually welcome across North Texas, especially after a long, hot summer. Just remember that fresh green grass deserves a closer look. A few minutes of scouting can make the difference between catching fall armyworms early and finding the damage after they have eaten their fill.

Continue Reading
Ad
Ad
Ad

Trending