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2015 could be a ‘make-it or break-it’ year for beef producers

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By: Robert Burns

Cost of replacement heifers and cow/calf pairs continued to break all historical records during the fall as producers sought to rebuild herds, according to a Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service economist. Replacement cow prices are expected to level out during the winter, but then climb higher with spring green-up. (Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service photo by Robert Burns)

Writer: Robert Burns, 903-834-6191, rd-burns@tamu.edu
COLLEGE STATION – Depending upon the weather and consumer tolerance for high prices, 2015 could be a make-it or break-it year for beef producers, according to a Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service expert.

Of course, it’s all about supply and demand, said Stan Bevers, AgriLife Extension economist, Vernon. In Texas and the rest of the U.S., cow inventory numbers are down, largely due to recent droughts. This means calf supplies are down as well.

And as many parts of Texas have come or seem to have begun to come out of the drought, livestock producers are avid about rebuilding herds or at least having stocker calves to take advantage of available winter wheat grazing, Bevers said. All in all, this means producers are seeing some extraordinary prices at the sale barn.

“Calf prices have been pretty much record prices throughout the year,” he said. “Every time we think we’ve reached a new plateau, we just wait a week or two weeks and they go higher. It’s not uncommon right now to see 450-pound calves bringing around $3.60 a pound, which puts them somewhere in the neighborhood of $1,600 a calf, which is extraordinary and more than we thought we’d ever see.”

In the Rolling Plains area, where Bevers is stationed, as well as many other parts of Texas, the rains came at just the right time to really stimulate the planting and growth of winter wheat pastures. The good forage availability is likely to contribute to driving calf prices even higher throughout much of 2015, Bevers said.

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“Here in North Texas, we have probably had as near as good of wheat pasture as we have in the last four years,” he said. “That’s putting pressure on producers to put stocker calves on wheat pasture in order to glean a few more dollars from them.”

Longer term, there is some evidence total U.S. herd numbers are being rebuilt, Bevers said.

There’s a lot of evidence, at least in Texas, that producers are already starting to rebuild herds as large parts of the state move out of the drought, Bevers said. But rebuilding continues to be an expensive proposition.

“We’re seeing producers retaining their heifers or buying females of various sorts and ages,” he said. “It is not uncommon for young cow/calf pairs to currently bring well over $3,000,” he said. “Five to six or seven years ago, $1,200 to $1,500 was unheard of.”

Bevers said he expects the high replacement prices to continue to be stable as colder weather sets in. Producers may hold back during the winter as they do not want to bring more females in until they see what the weather and forage supplies are going to be.

“But come spring, March and April, when things start to green up again, chances are we’ll see another run up on these females,” he said. “At some point, we’ll get stocked up again and prices will go down, but I don’t see that happening at least until the fall of next year.”

What will ultimately govern calf and replacement prices will be the prices consumers are willing to pay, Bevers said.

“That’s the black swan, the unpredictable event: How high can the prices consumers pay at the supermarket go before they start cutting back,” he said. “Lately, demand has actually gone up, despite high prices. But consumers are buying more hamburger and less steaks and roasts.”

One factor that makes it unpredictable is that it takes as long as a year and a half for calf and replacement females that are bought today to affect consumer prices, Bevers said. Consequently, consumers won’t be affected by current calf or cow/calf prices until well into 2016.

There will be no regional reports for this issue of Texas crop, weather.

By agreement with the U.S. Department of Agriculture, AgriLife Extension county agent reports are collected by the agency’s National Agriculture Statistical Service in Austin and then routed to the appropriate regional offices. This year, as it did last year, the statistical service suspended collecting the county reports for December. The district reports will resume when the service begins collecting them again, usually the first or second week of 2015.

The 12 Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service Districts

Coastal Bend
In the Coastal Bend area, optimism is also high, and producers are rebuilding herds too, said Dr. Levi Russell, AgriLife Extension economist, Corpus Christi.

But the different climate and breeds of cattle affect producer decisions about rebuilding, he said. First, 500-pound steers are running about $2.80 a pound, and choice cow/calf pairs are running about $2,300, considerably cheaper than in other parts of the state.

Prices are lower for a number of reasons, according to Russell. One, calves have to be shipped considerably farther north to the feedlot areas. And because of the warmer climate, there’s more Brahman influence, which also means they don’t grade as well and tolerate the winter cold up north as well as the crosses used in Central and North Texas.

“If the calves are worth less, then the breeding stock is worth less, because any capital asset is based on the cash flow you get from it,” Russell said.

Another reason south Texas calves are cheaper is that stocker cattle are not common in the area because there is not much winter wheat grown for grazing and pastures aren’t suitable, he said.

Still, the prices are historically high for the area. But many producers are resisting the temptation to take replacement heifers and cows to the sale barn for quick money.

“There’s some skepticism, but at the same time, price projections for the next few years are high,” he said. “And this will still induce people to hold back some females as there’s an opportunity to rebuild with the rangeland and pastures that we have. With calf prices as high as they are and likely to stay high for at least the next few years, you could easily pay off the investment in a young pair in two or three years.”

And the fact that the region was hit hard by the drought, as hard as parts of West Texas and the Panhandle, doesn’t seem to be discouraging producers from taking a long-term view, Russell said.

“Could the rains tail off again?” he said. “Well sure, but I think there are a number of people holding back heifers and taking advantage of the favorable price projections and improving rangeland and pastures.”

Panhandle/South Plains
Out here, people are taking advantage of what we had, which was some decent rain in the summer, especially August and September” said Dr. Ted McCollum, AgriLife Extension beef cattle specialist, Amarillo.

And though the Texas High Plains has had some relief from the drought, it hasn’t had the turnaround that many other parts of the state have, McCollum said.

“There are some areas in the Panhandle that are still wanting for rain,” he said. “We had moisture and grew some grass, but you don’t have to dig very deep to find dry ground.”

Though the good summer rains began recovery of rangeland in many areas, winter wheat for grazing remains a mixed bag, McCollum said. Where it was planted early and benefited from rains in August and September, or it was grown under center pivot irrigation, stands are good. Where it was planted late, stands are short and not suitable for grazing.

Wheat was planted late because the preceding crop was late being harvested or the late summer rains prevented growers from getting into fields to plant, he said.

“So we’ve kind of had two ends of the spectrum when it comes to wheat,” McCollum said.

As elsewhere, Panhandle stocker calf prices are historically high. The first of December, across the primary auctions in the Panhandle, 450-500 -pound steer calves were trading from about $2.80 to 3.25 a pound, while lighter end of 500 pound steer calves were going for $2.80 to $3, depending on quality and lot size, he said.

But even with calf prices so high, any Panhandle wheat that’s grazable will likely have stocker cattle on it, he said.

“If you look at what the prices for light calves were back earlier in the fall, stocker cattle producers can project a pretty good net margin in the spring,” McCollum said.

As for restocking cow/calf herds, that’s a different matter, he said. True, the improved range conditions are prompting some livestock producers to bring their cowherd numbers up, but there’s some holding back.

Most cow/calf operations will be on rangeland or perhaps on retired U.S. Department of Agriculture conservation reserve program acres, and a return to full-fledged drought conditions could change everything, according to McCollum.

The prices of cows alone are holding some people back, he said.

“The first of December, young to middle age cows that are three to eight months bred — meaning they will be ready to calve sometime after Christmas — were bringing $1,700 to $2,700 in Amarillo,” McCollum said.

“I’d say the restocking of those areas is fairly tentative right now. There are folks waiting to see if the summer of 2014 was a good year in the middle of a drought or if the drought is actually broken. Some of these guys are little bit leery of paying high dollar for a cow and finding we are still in a drought.”

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                                                                          American Lotus

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By Tony Dean

Farmers and ranchers are in a very close partnership with Mother Nature. If we really pay attention, she presents us some interesting scenarios.

For example, though they are totally different types of plants, water lilies and prickly pear have a lot in common. They both have strikingly beautiful flowers, both plants are edible, both of them are invaders into their respective habitats, and too much of either one can be an obstacle that we have to deal with.

Many north Texas ranches rely on excavated ponds for livestock water. Any time a pond contains a significant amount of shallow water so that sunlight reaches the bottom, some type of pond weed will develop.  The plant family that includes water lilies and lotuses is a common invader in our livestock water.

Water lilies and lotuses are in the same plant family but they are two separate genera. There are easy ways to tell them apart:

  • A primary difference is that water lily leaves commonly float on the surface, but lotus leaves can grow above the water line.
  • Water lily leaves and flowers are thick and waxy, while lotus leaves and flowers are thin and papery.
  • Water lily leaves have a distinct notch in the leaf, while lotus leaves are more rounded.
  • Water lily flower petals are pointed, and lotus petals are more rounded.

The photos attached to this writing are from Clay County, and this plant is common across north Texas. American lotus is adapted to a wide area, from Honduras north through Mexico and across the eastern US and into Canada.

American lotus is a perennial, and it is cold tolerant and heat tolerant. It can grow in any pond or slow moving stream that contains shallow water areas.  It prefers water with a depth of about 12 inches. Germination can occur from the large lotus seeds. Tubers, or roots, are established in the mud, and long slender stems extend upward. Leaves and flowers are both emergent in that they grow above the water line.

Lotus flowers are fragrant, and yellowish white with rich gold centers.  They open in the morning and close by late afternoon, then open again the next day.

Lotus is an edible plant and has a history as a food source. The large tuberous roots, the size of a human arm, were baked like sweet potatoes. The leaves were eaten like spinach, and the large seeds were ground into flour. Stems taste somewhat like beets and were usually peeled before being eaten.

There is a large world-wide industry of cultivating lilies and lotuses in water gardens. According to        Dr. Jerry Parsons, Professor and Extension Horticulturist with Texas A&M AgriLife Extension, cultivation of these plants dates back as early as ancient Egypt. Today, anyone with determination and a little money can have a water garden.

In 2011, the 82nd Texas Legislature designated the water lily “Texas Dawn” as the official Texas State Water Lily. Texas Dawn is a hybrid developed by Texas resident Kenneth Landon, a world-renowned expert in the field of water lilies and the director of the International Water Lily collection in San Angelo.

Ducks and other wildlife utilize the large acorn like seeds of American lotus, and submerged portions of all aquatic plants provide some form of wetland habitat. Many of us have tried to pull a bass out of a group of water lilies or lotuses, and I’m sure others have had better luck than I did. Although there can certainly be benefits to lilies, lotuses, and other aquatic plants, they can also infest ponds to the extent that the pond is not functioning correctly.

So, while the rest of the world works hard to grow these plants, ranchers sometimes need to control populations in their stock ponds. Once it gets a foot hold, American lotus can spread aggressively in wetland areas.

The primary issue that encourages American lotus, and most other water weeds, is shallow water.  Look closely at a good livestock pond and you will find that the deeper water is basically free of infestation.  Any pond will have a certain amount of shallow water that encourages water weed growth, depending upon the terrain at the pond site and how the pond was constructed. Some ranchers who enjoy and utilize wetland habitat may prefer to have ponds with significant shallow water area.

Almost all livestock ponds have a certain life expectancy.  Siltation, or movement of soil into the pond bottom through rainfall runoff, is a natural occurrence.  How fast siltation occurs into each pond, and how deep the pond was to start with, determines the length of time that the pond will contain adequate depth for dependable water for livestock.

Ponds that develop infestations of water weeds over a large percent of the surface may not have adequate depth to remain a viable water source for livestock during drought periods, especially in  western north Texas where evaporation rates are higher.

Mud, or silt, from the pond bottom, can be removed to deepen the water, but this is a very expensive process.  It is often more economical to construct a new pond rather than try to remove the silt from an old one.  Most of us do not have the funds to continually construct deep water livestock ponds, so we must try to keep existing structures functioning and providing good drinking water for livestock, for as long as we can. Control of pond weeds like American lotus may be necessary, and it can be accomplished.

There is currently no feasible biological control. American lotus can be cut and removed, but this process us usually temporary because lotus can reestablish from seeds and roots.

American lotus can be safely controlled by chemicals. This must be done carefully.  If a pond containing a large amount of any pond weeds is treated to remove all of the vegetation, a fish die-off could occur.  When the dying weeds decompose, they use up the oxygen in the water and fish can suffocate. If possible, treat only a portion of the area, wait about two weeks, and treat another portion.

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Tracks in the Sand

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This morning, I walked out into my arena and noticed something that gave me pause. The roping steers had been in there the day before, and even though the ground was wide and level, the sand carried their story. Hoofprints crossed every direction, but in several spots, the same trail was pressed deeper than the rest. Twelve steers had been turned out, yet more than a few chose the exact same path, wearing it down until it stood out from all the other tracks.

Cattle are creatures of habit. Anyone who has spent time around them knows this. They like routine: the same feed, the same water trough, the same shade tree in the pasture. When they are turned loose, they rarely wander without purpose. More often than not, they move together, following the same course as the steer in front of them. There are reasons for this: efficiency, safety, instinct. Walking a beaten path conserves energy, and following the herd is their natural defense. Even in an arena with no real destination, those instincts come through. By the end of a short turnout, you will see the evidence, lines where they have chosen the easiest way to travel and stuck with it.

Out on the range, those lines last longer. Before fences and highways, cattle drives cut deep paths across the land. The Chisholm Trail, which carried herds north from Texas through Oklahoma into Kansas, was walked by millions of cattle in the late 1800s. More than a century later, faint traces of those trails remain, worn so deep by hooves and wagon wheels that the land still carries the mark. On ranches today, you can see the same effect in pastures where cattle walk the same lines between water and grazing. From the ground those trails might look like nothing more than dusty ruts, but from the air, they sometimes stand out as sharp lines winding through otherwise open fields. Cattle do not simply pass over the land; they shape it. Every step adds up.

That simple truth extends beyond livestock. We all make tracks. Our habits and routines are our trails, worn in by repetition, sometimes efficient, sometimes limiting. Like the cow paths, they can serve a purpose, keeping us steady and helping us move forward. But when repeated without thought, they risk becoming ruts, keeping us from stepping into new ground. History offers perspective here too. The old cattle trails built towns and economies, but once railroads and fences changed the landscape, those paths were no longer useful. Sticking to them would have meant going in circles. Progress required something new.


The Tracks We Leave

Standing in the arena, I thought about the kind of tracks I leave behind. Most of mine are not visible in the dirt. They are pressed into my daily life, how I work, the way I handle challenges, the example I set. Some are helpful and worth keeping. Others may have outlived their purpose. The difference comes in knowing when to stay in the track and when to step out of it.

Tomorrow I will drag the arena and smooth it all clean again. The next time the steers are turned in, they will make the same trails. That is their nature. But unlike them, I have a choice. I can decide which paths are worth walking, which ones to change, and what kind of tracks I want to leave for others who might follow.

Tracks tell a story. Sometimes they are only temporary, fading with the next rain. Other times they last for generations, reminders of where herds and people once walked. This morning, the cattle showed me again that even the smallest things on the ranch carry meaning. Their tracks in the arena were not just marks in the sand. They were a lesson: every step matters, and the paths we choose shape more than just the ground beneath our feet.

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Leopold’s Legacy: The Five Tools That Shaped Conservation

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By Raenne Santos

Known as the father of wildlife management, Aldo Leopold’s teachings reshaped our understanding of conservation and our role in nature. His philosophy, rooted in ethics, ecology, and action, emerged in response to the environmental degradation of the early 20th century in the American West. Overgrazed pastures, eroding soils, and changing wildlife populations revealed the consequences of treating natural resources as limitless. 

Recognizing these challenges, Leopold theorized a transformative approach to land stewardship, emphasizing that the land is not merely a commodity, but a community in which we all belong. His works, A Sand County Almanac and Land Ethic, are still referenced to this day by modern conservationists. In Land Ethic, he introduced a practical framework for wildlife management known as the Five Tools of Wildlife Management, which offers land stewards a structured approach to maintaining and restoring ecological balance.

Symbolizing brush management, the axe is one of Leopold’s tools for controlling invasive species, shaping habitats, and mitigating wildfire risks. By selectively removing vegetation, land managers can enhance biodiversity, create open spaces for native species, and maintain healthy ecosystems. 

Representing grazing animals, the cow (when used properly) mimics the natural disturbances once provided by bison. Grazing animals promote healthy ecosystems by aiding in nutrient cycling and soil disturbance. Responsible grazing practices prevent overuse and contribute to sustainable land management. 

The plow signifies mechanical disturbance and soil preparation, crucial for habitat restoration and agricultural productivity. Used strategically, it aids in cultivating crops and creating conditions favorable to wildlife. However, misuse can lead to erosion, requiring careful application in conservation efforts.

Fire, a powerful natural tool, plays a crucial role in maintaining biodiversity and landscape resilience. Land managers use prescribed fire to control invasive species, rejuvenate plant communities, and shape habitats. Fire promotes the natural cycles of ecosystems and supports species diversity. 

The final tool, the gun, is used to manage game populations and control predators. During Leopold’s time, unregulated hunting contributed to species extinction and posed threats to others. Today, hunting is strictly managed through game laws and seasonal regulations to ensure sustainable populations.

Leopold’s Five Tools of Wildlife Management continue to influence conservation practices today. While techniques have evolved, the fundamental principles remain the same—balancing human involvement with ecological processes to sustain healthy ecosystems. His approach emphasizes the importance of working with nature rather than against it. By embracing ethical land stewardship, modern conservationists honor Leopold’s vision, ensuring that future generations inherit thriving landscapes.

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