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El Niño development stalled out, but cool, wet winter still predicted

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By: Robert Burns

Writer: Robert Burns, 903-834-6191, rd-burns@tamu.edu

COLLEGE STATION – Though this year’s El Niño is now predicted to be a weak one, it still spells more a chance of a wet, cool winter for most of Texas rather than a dry one, according to the Texas State Climatologist.

El Niño refers to warmer-than-average ocean water temperatures off the Pacific coast of South America, said Dr. John Nielsen-Gammon, state climatologist, College Station. A moderate to strong El Niño usually means more moisture to parts of the Southwest and Southeast during the late fall and winter. El Niño translates as “The Boy Child,” because it usually peaks about the time of Christmas.

“We’ve been waiting for El Niño to develop for about six months now, and it still hasn’t quite happened,” Nielsen-Gammon said. “Temperatures in the tropical Pacific have been running above normal for most of the period, and there’s still a great deal of warm water beneath the surface. So the odds still favor at least a weak El Niño developing over the next couple of months and lasting through most of the winter.”

Preview or download a two-minute MP3 audio version of this report
Nielsen-Gammon said it doesn’t really matter whether the official El Niño criteria of “warm enough for long enough” are met. It will still affect Texas weather at least somewhat.

“The expectations from the Climate Prediction Center, based on simulations and past history, are that the chances are more likely of having a cool, wet winter rather than a warm, dry one,” he said.The reason for this optimism, Nielsen-Gammon said, is that the warmer temperatures in the tropics tend to drag the jet stream farther south than normal.

“Since Texas is already normally sitting south of the jet stream in the winter time, this brings us more into the path of winter storms,” he said. “Somewhat paradoxically, even though it may be a cool winter, it’s not supposed to bring any of those remarkably cold spells because in general the jet stream won’t be going far enough north to drag any Arctic air masses down this far.”

This means more cloudy, rainy winter weather, “which many people might find annoying, but that will be good for agricultural production and bring some relief to the drier parts of the state,” Nielsen-Gammon said.

More information on the current Texas drought and wildfire alerts can be found on the AgriLife Extension Agricultural Drought Task Force website at http://agrilife.tamu.edu/drought/ .

Central: Most counties reported soil moisture, rangeland and pastures, as fair. Overall, most crops were in good condition, as were livestock. The region received good rains during the weekend, along with cooler weather, which will slow or stop Bermuda grass growth even with the good soil moisture. The pecan harvest was well underway, with very good quality reported. The cotton harvest was winding down in all areas. Producers continued to plant winter wheat and oats, and were seeing good emergence so far. Wheat and oat planting usually continues from October through November. Some producers planned to plant after Nov. 15 to avoid Hessian fly infestations. A few producers were already grazing stocker cattle on some oat fields. Despite the rains, the Blacklands region remained drier than normal for this time of year.

Coastal Bend: Soil moisture was good. Rain delayed the last of the cotton harvest, cotton stalk destruction and hay harvesting in many areas. Fall fieldwork, such as disking and bedding, continued throughout the week on fields that had dried out enough. Planting of winter pastures began last week, with continued planting activity expected through early November. Forage producers continued to scout for armyworms. Because of current conditions, some johnsongrass fields tested positive for prussic acid. Early varieties of pecans were being harvested. Livestock were in fair condition.

East: Cooler temperatures halted warm-season forage growth throughout the region. Some hay production was still in progress, but producers were having trouble curing cuttings because of cold nights and morning dews. Hay sales were slow. Producers continued to plant cool-season forages. Topsoil and subsoil moisture were adequate in most counties. Wood County continued to report short both topsoil and subsoil levels. Cereal rye seed was scarce and expensive, and some producers were using seed blends to decrease the per-acre planting cost. Shelby and San Augustine counties reported more than 3 inches of rain. Flash floods with erosion were reported in Trinity County where 4 inches of rain fell. Weaning of calves and culling of herds continued. Livestock remained in good body condition. Armyworms were present. Feral hogs were active, with damage reports rising. Pecan scab reports increased.

Far West: Warm days and cool nights were the norm for the week. Presidio County had their first freeze on Oct. 14. Subsoil and topsoil moisture ranged from adequate to very short. Corn was more than 70 percent harvested. Upland cotton was in good to excellent condition, with most fields having open bolls and from 5 to 15 percent harvested. Nearly all grain sorghum was mature. From 60 to 75 percent of winter wheat was planted. Pastures and rangeland were in fair to poor condition. In El Paso County, 60 percent of Pawnee variety pecans and 10 percent of Western had open shucks.

North: Topsoil moisture was mostly adequate, with some counties reporting surplus. From 2 to 3 inches of rain fell throughout the region. Low temperatures dropped to the mid-60s with the storms. The hay harvest was winding down due to lower nighttime temperatures that slowed warm-season grass growth. The rains delayed planting of winter wheat, oats and winter pasture grasses for a few days. What had been planted before the rain had mostly emerged. Overall, cattle were in good condition, but up-and-down weather patterns were causing them stress. Feral hogs continued to cause damage.

Panhandle: Temperatures were near average for the region. Soil moisture was rated mostly adequate, with a few areas reporting short. The Collingsworth County peanut harvest was nearly done, with yields and grades on irrigated peanuts above average. Cotton producers were spraying defoliants, and harvest should be in full swing in some counties this week. Wheat had pressure from fall armyworms, and many producers were spraying. Deaf Smith County producers were harvesting corn and corn silage. Grain yields were above average, with many acres yet to be harvested. Dryland grain sorghum was ready for harvest, as were sunflowers. In Hansford County, the corn harvest was about over, but a little late-planted corn still needed to be cut. Most of the soybeans had been harvested there, with the average yield about 60 bushels per acre. Ochiltree County wheat planting was winding down. The Randall County corn harvest was complet ed, and yields were about average. The Randall County grain sorghum harvest was just beginning, with yields slightly above average at about 4,000 pounds per acre. Last week, Gray County received a mixture of rain, large hail, high winds and a tornado. Corn was lodged in some areas, cotton stripped of leaves and bolls, and grain sorghum seed heads blasted. Some cotton was not expected to recover.

Rolling Plains: Cotton harvesting was about to begin in some areas where producers had already defoliated. Temperatures continued to stay warm enough to help cotton finish maturing. The region remained dry. Some wheat was emerging but stands were skimpy. Armyworms were infesting early planted wheat. Pastures and rangelands were thriving on past rains in some areas; in others, pastures were drying out and turning brown. Hay was available for sale, and prices were reasonable for those who needed to provide supplemental feed. Livestock were in fair to good condition. The pecan harvest began, but was not yet in full swing. Stock tanks and lakes still needed runoff water.

South: Daytime temperatures were mild with cool nights. Only Brooks County reported a light rain. Rangeland and pastures were in good condition. In the northern part of the region, peanut harvesting was in full swing, hay cutting and baling continued, and wheat and oat crop producers continued planting. Fall armyworms were reported on improved Bermuda grass pastures in the McMullen County area. Grazing conditions improved in many areas, but additional forage production was needed during the next couple of weeks in order to have adequate grazing for the winter season. Cattle body condition scores improved with most herds in fair condition. Soil moisture was mostly short throughout the area, with the exception of Atascosa County where it was 90 to 95 percent adequate. In the eastern part of the region, oak trees appeared to be slowly recovering from the drought. Landowners continued to supplement wildlife and cattle. Fall ar myworms were a big problem throughout Kleberg and Kenedy counties. Soil moisture was 60 to 80 percent adequate in Brooks County, 50 percent adequate in Jim Hogg County, and 60 percent short in Jim Wells, Kleberg and Kenedy counties. In the western part of the region, coastal Bermuda grass growth slowed because of cooler temperatures and lack of rain. Stock-tank water supplies remained good with low evaporation rates, and ranchers continued trying to rebuild herds. In Zavala County, dry conditions kept producers busy irrigating recently planted wheat, oats, onions, cabbage and spinach. Pecan harvesting was light, cotton ginning continued at two facilities, and supplemental feeding was minimal. Also in Zavala County, cooler temperatures stimulated growth of cool-season grasses and forbes on native range and pastures. Soil moisture ranged from about 60 percent adequate to 100 percent very short. In the southern part of the region, most Cameron County fields remained too wet to work. F all corn was progressing well, forages were good, as were livestock. In Starr County, fall vegetable crops were progressing well, and hay baling continued, though there were reports of armyworms. Soil moisture ranged from 100 percent adequate to 80 percent short.

South Plains: Bailey County had a light frost with temperatures at 31 degrees for one hour on Oct. 14, but very little freeze damage occurred. Soil moisture was dropping due to higher temperatures and recent winds. The silage and corn harvests continued, as well as the grain sorghum harvest in some counties. Early planted crops were already out of the field, but later-planted fields needed a couple more weeks before ready. Peanuts were being dug and combined. Pasture and rangeland remained in good condition. Producers were starting to defoliate cotton in preparation for harvest. However, there were still a large number of cotton acres that needed another week or two before they will be ready. Cotton gins took in a first few bales over the weekend. Lubbock County received very light, spotty showers this week, with cotton harvesting beginning there. No reports of grades were received from the Lubbock classing office yet . Wheat was rapidly progressing thanks to good soil moisture. Swisher County producers continued to harvest haygrazer and grain sorghum. Test weights across the county were considerably lower than predicted.

Southeast: Soil moisture was mostly in the adequate to surplus range, with Brazos and Hardin counties reporting 100 percent adequate. Rangeland and pastures varied from fair to good, with fair ratings being the most common. Livestock were in good condition. With the recent dry weather conditions in Brazoria County, hay cutting and baling was anticipated to increase. The rice harvest in Chambers County was over except for a few late-planted fields. The ratoon – second crop – rice looked very good, though warm weather was needed to keep the crop progressing. A side note to the expected good second crop was there was already lack of storage for the first crop. With the market sluggish and the lack of grain being sold, there was a back-up at the dryers and mills. In Montgomery County, the seasonal temperatures and no rainfall allowed for winter annual pasture plantings begin. Armyworms are affecting warm-season pastures.

Southwest: Fall conditions were above average, but the warmer weather helped grow some much needed grass for grazing. Rangeland and pastures were in very good shape. However, there were major outbreaks of armyworms in small grain and improved pastures. White grubs also infested some newly planted small grain fields. Lots of winter weeds emerged after earlier rains. The condition of wildlife and livestock was on the upswing. Quail numbers and deer antler growth looked good. However, deer body condition scores were below normal but improving.

West Central: Days were warm with cool nights, and many areas received rain over the weekend. There was some hail damage to cotton in the northern tier of counties. Producers were planting small grains. Wheat sowing was well underway. Cotton was rapidly maturing, and most fields were sprayed with defoliant. In general, cotton harvesting should start in the next few weeks. Some early planted cotton was already harvested with reports of above average yields. Armyworms infested many small grain fields. Some producers were able to take another cutting of hay due to the recent rains and warm temperatures. Rangeland and pastures were in good condition as the recent rains helped improve growth of winter grasses and forages. Livestock remained in fair to good condition. Stock-tank water levels continued to decline and were becoming a concern. The pecan harvest should pick up in the next few weeks. Some hand harvesting was already underway on smaller, younger trees.

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Farm & Ranch

Grazing North Texas: Who’s Your Neighbor?

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By Tony Dean, tonydean.tx1@gmail.com

Who qualifies as your neighbor? Webster says it is someone who lives nearby, but it isn’t always that simple. Is my neighbor the person next door, or someone in the next county? It could be both.

Our neighbors are an important part of life on the ranch and the grazing lands we share. Many of us find comfort in knowing another human being is somewhere in our neck of the woods, and that someone nearby cares what happens to us.

Being a good neighbor is part of being a productive and responsible rancher, so let’s look at some of the qualities that make a good one.

Protect your neighbor

Watch out for him.

The cattle business is dangerous. Almost everything we work with is bigger and faster than we are. A mad cow can turn an otherwise wonderful day into a disaster. Sooner or later, all of us will need some help.

The average age of today’s rancher keeps climbing. Be aware of your neighbors’ ages, limitations or disabilities, and keep an eye out for anything outside their normal routine.

More women own and operate ranches today, too. Some may suddenly find themselves responsible for parts of the operation that a spouse or family member used to handle. As neighbors, we can be a valuable backup system, helping one another learn, adjust and keep the operation moving.

And then there is wildfire. It can be on us in minutes. You may need to help move a family down the road to safety or move livestock out of harm’s way. Have a plan in mind before the emergency happens.

Be a friend

Some of us who live in the country drive to town for work or make regular trips for other reasons. Others are stay-at-home ranchers, and life can get a little lonely. A friendly smile, a phone call or an invitation to lunch can mean more than we realize.

Things aren’t always wine and roses at the ranch. Few occupations ask people to juggle such a mix of complex markets, weather, natural resource management, livestock management and countless other issues.

Spirits can get low. If we are listening, we can hear and feel the stress in someone’s life. On those days, you have a chance to be a special kind of friend.

Help your neighbor

Have you ever tried to load a trailer by yourself and needed someone to stand in the gate for a couple of minutes? All of us will need help at some point, and our neighbors should be among the people we can call.

Do your best to be there when needed, and your neighbors will likely be there when it is your turn to ask. Sometimes it will be a small job. Other times, it will be a big one. It doesn’t matter. We help our neighbors.

It’s also smart to make sure someone nearby knows your ranching program and understands the land you use. At some point, one of you may need to take care of business for the other for several days.

Be cooperative

There is no end to the situations that can involve more than one family. Fencing, road maintenance and livestock getting where they don’t belong are common ones.

If you don’t handle these things with a friendly, cooperative attitude, they can create problems between neighbors that last for years.

Good fences are something to be proud of. Nothing is gained by years of bickering. Reaching an agreement may be hard at times, but neighbors should be able to work things out. Clear your head, use common sense and come up with an answer everyone can live with.

If your cattle get mixed up with your neighbor’s, make it a priority to separate them as soon as possible. It is rude to let your cattle stay in your neighbor’s pasture eating his grass while you do nothing about it.

One good way to handle strays is for the rancher whose pasture they are in to pen his own cattle along with the strays. The other rancher can then load his cattle and take them home. Afterward, both ranchers can work together on any fence repairs.

By the way, a gate between neighbors is almost always a good policy.

Take ownership

The only way to avoid mistakes is to do nothing. But it isn’t in us as ranchers to sit around and watch the world go by. We are men and women of action, so things are going to go sideways from time to time.

When that happens, and it will, own your mistakes. Decisive action can prevent misunderstandings and make a problem go away much faster.

Be honest, and never, ever lie.

Be patient

We all have bad days. When your neighbor is a little grouchy, he or she probably has something weighing on them.

That is a chance to be a good neighbor. Be patient. Be a good listener. Help your neighbor through the turmoil if you can.

Respect property boundaries

Trespassing is wrong, illegal and rude. Never do it except in an emergency.

In the Southwest, where we live, land ownership is considered a sacred right, and it is a right available to anyone. With ownership comes an expectation of privacy and respect. When you trespass, you violate those rights.

And yes, it is trespassing when you cross a fence to fish or hunt without permission. Texas is a private-property state, which makes respecting these boundaries especially important.

That doesn’t mean you can’t have an understanding with your neighbors that lets you onto their land. Many good friends and neighbors work together on one another’s ranches, but both parties should always communicate well.

You have a cell phone. Use it any time you doubt whether you have the right to go through the gate. An invitation onto another person’s ranch is a privilege, so don’t abuse it.

Your word

Your word as a rancher, neighbor, man or woman helps define you in your community and throughout your life. Your neighbors want to trust you. They want to know that all they need from you is a handshake and that they can depend on what you say.

It is a blessing to live in North Texas, where people still respect and honor a life lived with truth and love.

A good life to live

Having good neighbors is a great way to live. It brings comfort and enjoyment to life. Sometimes it takes a little extra effort, but a friendly neighborhood, even one that covers many acres, is enjoyable and can help keep all of us safer.

It is worth the effort.

The Bible

The Bible has many references to being a good neighbor. Being a good neighbor was good judgment 2,000 years ago, and it is good judgment today. Jesus made it clear that love should guide a good neighbor.

Leviticus 19:18 tells us to love our neighbors as ourselves. That is a tall order. In Matthew 5:44, Jesus takes it further, telling us to love our enemies and pray for those who persecute us.

Our goal should always be to love one another, lift each other up, and help and protect our neighbors.

All of us face drought, floods, wildfire, tornadoes, low cattle prices, rattlesnakes and feral hogs, so let’s fight the fight together. Stand by your neighbor’s side, and he will stand by yours.

A North Texas minister was recently asked, “What do you do if you have a neighbor who is really hard to love?”

His answer was short and to the point: “Love him anyway.”

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Farm & Ranch

Beyond Crude Protein

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By NTFR Staff

A stack of hay may look good from the outside. The bales may be heavy, green and free of obvious weeds or mold. None of that tells a cattle producer what the hay will provide once it reaches the feed bunk.

Two bales from the same field can differ noticeably in nutrition if they were cut at different stages of maturity, weathered differently or stored under different conditions. The differences grow even larger when you compare hay bought from separate farms or produced in different growing seasons.

A forage analysis takes much of the guesswork out by showing what the hay contains and where you may need to supplement.

Crude protein is often the first number producers check, but it is only one part of the report. Energy, fiber, moisture and possible toxicity concerns can matter just as much when deciding whether a lot of hay suits dry cows, lactating cows, replacement heifers or growing calves.

Reading beyond the protein number

Most forage reports show results on both an “as received” and a dry-matter basis. The as-received column includes the water in the hay. The dry-matter column takes moisture out of the calculation so you can compare feeds with different moisture levels fairly.

For ration planning, the dry-matter values are usually the most useful. If you’re comparing dry hay with silage, cubes or another feed, make the comparison on a dry-matter basis rather than on the numbers as fed.

Moisture still deserves attention. Hay baled too wet is more likely to heat, mold or deteriorate in storage. In severe cases, heating can create a fire risk. Moisture also affects how many pounds of actual nutrients you are buying. A heavy bale isn’t necessarily a nutrient-dense bale if much of its weight is water.

Crude protein, usually listed as CP, estimates the protein in the forage based on its nitrogen content. Protein keeps the rumen microbes that help cattle digest forage working. When forage protein drops too low, intake and digestion may decline because those microbes can’t function as well.

The amount of protein a cow needs changes a great deal through the year. A mature, dry cow in mid-pregnancy needs less than a cow in late pregnancy or early lactation. Young, growing cattle and first-calf heifers may also need more protein than mature dry cows. Hay that is adequate for one group may fall short for another.

Always compare a forage report with the needs of the cattle that will eat the hay. Oklahoma State University notes that cattle requirements vary with weight, age, stage of production, desired gain and milk production. A single protein target can’t describe the needs of an entire herd.

Energy is another major piece of the feeding decision. Many forage reports express energy as total digestible nutrients, or TDN, an estimate of the digestible energy in the feed. Protein supports rumen function and tissue growth, while energy fuels maintenance, pregnancy, milk production and weight gain.

Hay can test well for protein and still come up short on energy. That matters most for cows nearing calving or producing milk. Low-energy hay may leave cattle feeling full without giving them enough nutrition to hold body condition. University of Nebraska Extension stresses evaluating both protein and energy when judging the feeding value of forage.

Fiber measurements help explain why cattle eat one hay readily and less of another. Neutral detergent fiber, or NDF, represents much of the plant’s structural material, including cellulose, hemicellulose and lignin. As NDF rises, cattle generally eat less because bulky, fibrous forage stays in the digestive tract longer.

Acid detergent fiber, or ADF, includes the least digestible parts of the plant. Higher ADF generally means lower digestibility and less available energy. Put simply, high NDF can limit how much cattle eat, and high ADF can mean they get less energy from what they do eat.

Both numbers tend to climb as forage plants mature. Mature hay usually has more stem and less leaf than hay cut earlier. It may still be acceptable feed for animals with lower needs, but it is less likely to support lactating cows or growing cattle without supplementation.

Some reports also include relative feed value, or RFV. This index uses ADF and NDF to compare forage quality, particularly for alfalfa and other legumes. It can help when you compare similar types of hay, but it doesn’t account for every nutrient cattle need. Don’t let RFV replace a closer look at crude protein, energy and the animal’s stage of production.

Depending on the lab package you choose, the report may include minerals. Labs commonly report calcium and phosphorus, but a forage analysis can’t replace a well-designed mineral program. Water quality, other feeds and interactions among minerals all affect mineral needs and availability. Work with an Extension specialist, veterinarian or livestock nutritionist before making major mineral changes.

Nitrate and prussic acid

A standard forage analysis may not include nitrates, and you often have to request that test separately. Nitrate testing is especially important for drought-stressed forage, heavily fertilized fields and crops such as sorghum, sudangrass, sorghum-sudan hybrids, millet, oats and some weeds.

Nitrate can remain in cured hay and doesn’t reliably disappear in storage. Test any hay you suspect of high nitrate before feeding it. Oklahoma State University recommends a laboratory analysis because field screening tests can show that nitrate is present but can’t measure how much.

Prussic acid is a different concern. Unlike nitrate, prussic acid usually dissipates as properly cured hay sits in storage, though suspect forage still needs careful management and professional guidance. Be sure which test you need, and don’t treat the terms nitrate and prussic acid as interchangeable.

Putting the numbers to work

A hay test pays off when it leads to a feeding plan. Once you have the results, you can match the hay to the right class of cattle. Save better hay for replacement heifers, thin cows, late-gestation cows or cows with calves at side. Feed lower-quality hay to mature dry cows with modest requirements.

Testing can also prevent unnecessary supplementation. Without an analysis, you may buy protein tubs, cubes or other supplements your cattle don’t need. The opposite mistake costs just as much. Assuming hay is better than it is can lead to lost body condition, lower milk production, poor breed-back rates and lighter calves.

Visual inspection still matters. Don’t ignore mold, foreign material, weeds, dust or heat damage because a lab report shows acceptable numbers. At the same time, color and appearance can’t reliably predict nutrient content. University of Nebraska notes that forage nutrient values vary widely, which makes average book values a poor substitute for testing the feed you have on hand.

A forage analysis won’t make poor hay better, but it can show you how to use that hay well. For the cost of a test, you get information that can guide hay purchases, cut supplement waste and put each lot of hay where it will do the most good.

The protein number may get the most attention, but it doesn’t tell the whole story. Understanding moisture, TDN, NDF, ADF and potential toxicity gives you a much clearer picture of what is inside the bale.

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Farm & Ranch

Don’t Be Caught Off Guard

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By Savannah Magoteaux

A September rain can be exactly what a North Texas pasture needs, but that flush of green can bring an unwelcome guest.

Fall armyworms are a familiar late-summer and early-fall pest across Texas, and they can do serious damage to pastures and hay fields when conditions are right. Bermudagrass is a common target, but armyworms also feed on small grains, ryegrass and other forage crops. The key is catching them early, before a manageable infestation turns into a field that seems to disappear overnight.

Despite the name, fall armyworms are caterpillars. The adult moths migrate into Texas and lay masses of eggs on grasses, fence posts, buildings and other surfaces. Once the larvae hatch, they start feeding on plants.

Young armyworms are small and hard to spot unless you are actively scouting. As they grow, their appetite climbs. Larger larvae can strip leaves fast, leaving stems behind and cutting into available forage or hay yield.

Look for an inverted, light-colored “Y” on the caterpillar’s head. Mature larvae can reach about 1½ inches long and often have several dark and light stripes running the length of the body.

Armyworms feed most actively during the cooler parts of the day, so early morning and late afternoon are good times to scout. Walk through several areas of the pasture rather than checking only along the edge. Look closely near the soil surface and beneath grass leaves, especially where you see fresh feeding damage.

Scouting matters most after rain or irrigation. New grass growth draws newly hatched larvae, and populations can build quickly when conditions favor them.

Texas A&M AgriLife Extension generally recommends considering treatment in improved pastures when you find about three or more armyworms per square foot. The decision should also weigh the size of the larvae, how much forage is present, the expected hay value and how severe the damage is.

Timing matters. Small armyworms are easier to control than large ones, and an insecticide does less good once the caterpillars are nearly mature and have already eaten much of the forage. If you treat, follow the product label carefully, including grazing and hay-harvest restrictions.

Don’t assume one treatment or one scouting trip will carry a pasture through the season. Fall armyworm moths can keep moving into an area, laying more eggs and starting another generation of larvae. Keep checking fields even after you have controlled an infestation.

For hay producers, an approaching harvest date can also shape the decision. When the crop is close to harvest, cutting the field may be a better option than spraying. The best choice depends on the number and size of the armyworms, how much forage remains and whether the weather allows you to cut hay.

September rain is usually welcome across North Texas, especially after a long, hot summer. Just remember that fresh green grass deserves a closer look. A few minutes of scouting can make the difference between catching fall armyworms early and finding the damage after they have eaten their fill.

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