Farm & Ranch
AgriLife Today Researchers: High Plains cotton production can survive predicted climate changes
By: Kay Ledbetter
Writer: Kay Ledbetter, 806-677-5608, skledbetter@ag.tamu.edu
Contact: Dr. Srinivasulu Ale, 940-552-9941, sriniale@ag.tamu.edu
Dr. Pradip Adhikari, 940-552-9941, pradip.adhikari@ag.tamu.edu
James Bordovsky, 806-746-6101, j-bordovsky@tamu.edu
VERNON – Cotton production in the Texas High Plains can survive expected climate changes, especially if water is available to compensate for higher temperatures, and increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations can mitigate yield loss in the dry years.
That was the conclusion of a Texas A&M AgriLife Research study, “Simulating future climate change impacts on seed cotton yield in the Texas High Plains using the CSM-CROPGRO-Cotton model,” recently published in the Agricultural Water Management journal.
“We believe cotton production in the Texas High Plains can withstand the effects of future climate variability under moderate increases in carbon dioxide levels,” said Dr. Srinivasulu Ale, AgriLife Research geospatial hydrologist in Vernon. “But our study shows that maintaining high yield levels will still require greater than 80 percent of current irrigation levels, even when increased carbon dioxide levels are accounted for.”
Joining Ale on the modeling study was Dr. Pradip Adhikari, AgriLife Research post-doctoral research associate in Vernon, and Jim Bordovsky, AgriLife Research senior research scientist and agricultural engineer in Lubbock/Halfway, among others.
The overall study was funded by Cotton Incorporated with model calibration partially supported by a Texas A&M Water Seed Grant.
Dwindling groundwater resources in the underlying Ogallala Aquifer, future climate variability and frequent occurrences of droughts are major concerns for cotton production in this region, Ale said.
He said it is known that climate change can affect agriculture both positively and negatively. Increases in carbon dioxide concentration due to climate change are positive for plant growth. Previous research reported elevated carbon dioxide levels could enhance crop growth and yield by increasing photosynthesis and decreasing stomatal conductance. As a result, transpiration per unit leaf area is reduced and overall water-use efficiency is improved.
“We know this region is predicted to have warmer summers and reductions in annual precipitation in the future,” Ale said. “Such trends would necessitate larger groundwater withdrawals to meet the higher evapotranspiration needs of cotton and prevent yield loss.”
That is why it is important to begin assessing the impacts of climate change on cotton production now to enable the development and evaluation of irrigation strategies for efficient utilization of groundwater resources in this region in the future, he said.
“Our study showed it may still be possible to produce cotton yields of 1,000 pounds of fiber per acre even under high deficit – 60 percent – irrigation,” Ale said.
In this study, the CROPGRO-Cotton model was evaluated for the Texas High Plains region using 27 treatments of measured data from cotton water-use efficiency experiments conducted from 2010-2013.
The measured data came from Bordovsky’s work at the Texas A&M AgriLife Research Center at Halfway and the impacts of future climate variability and change on irrigated cotton yield were assessed at Halfway and four other locations: Bushland, Lockney, Lubbock and Lamesa.
The future climate data used in this study was taken from research conducted by Dr. Naga Modala, also a co-author on the paper, while he was a graduate student in Ale’s program.
The evaluated CROPGRO-Cotton module withing the Cropping System Model was used to simulate the irrigated seed cotton yield under historic, 1971-2000, and future, 2041-2070, climate scenarios projected by three climate models, Adhikari said.
Simulated seed cotton yield matched closely with observed yield during model calibration and validation, he said. The evaluated model was able to accurately simulate seed cotton yield under various irrigation strategies over the four growing seasons.
The scenario examined the changes from 380 parts per million of carbon dioxide currently experienced to increasing levels of 493 parts per million in the year 2041 to 635 parts per million by 2070, which is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 emission scenario.
Also modeled in this study were the effects of reducing irrigation due to declining water levels, Ale said.
On an average, when compared to historic yields, simulated future yields across the Texas High Plains decreased within a range of 4-17 percent due to the combined effect of the increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall when carbon dioxide concentration was assumed to remain at the current level of 380 parts per million under three climatic model scenarios.
When the carbon dioxide concentration was assumed to increase from 493 parts per million in year 2041 to 635 parts per million in 2070, the simulated irrigated yields increased within a range of 14-29 percent as compared to historic average yield.
At the same time, when irrigation was reduced by 40 percent, the average 2041-2070 yields under the constant carbon dioxide concentration and the increasing concentration scenario decreased by 37 percent and 39 percent, respectively.
In general, average seed cotton yields under changing carbon dioxide concentration were higher by 11-15 percent when compared to constant carbon dioxide concentration among different irrigation levels. However, this trend varied among wet, normal and dry years, Adhikari said.
The percentage change in average seed cotton yield due to changing carbon dioxide concentration ranged between -9 percent at a 60 percent irrigation level and 7-8 percent at 100 percent irrigation level for the wet and normal years. It changed 30 percent and 98 percent at the respective irrigation levels for the dry years.
“These results imply that cotton is sensitive to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, especially in dry years,” Ale said.
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Farm & Ranch
American Lotus
By Tony Dean
Farmers and ranchers are in a very close partnership with Mother Nature. If we really pay attention, she presents us some interesting scenarios.
For example, though they are totally different types of plants, water lilies and prickly pear have a lot in common. They both have strikingly beautiful flowers, both plants are edible, both of them are invaders into their respective habitats, and too much of either one can be an obstacle that we have to deal with.
Many north Texas ranches rely on excavated ponds for livestock water. Any time a pond contains a significant amount of shallow water so that sunlight reaches the bottom, some type of pond weed will develop. The plant family that includes water lilies and lotuses is a common invader in our livestock water.
Water lilies and lotuses are in the same plant family but they are two separate genera. There are easy ways to tell them apart:
- A primary difference is that water lily leaves commonly float on the surface, but lotus leaves can grow above the water line.
- Water lily leaves and flowers are thick and waxy, while lotus leaves and flowers are thin and papery.
- Water lily leaves have a distinct notch in the leaf, while lotus leaves are more rounded.
- Water lily flower petals are pointed, and lotus petals are more rounded.
The photos attached to this writing are from Clay County, and this plant is common across north Texas. American lotus is adapted to a wide area, from Honduras north through Mexico and across the eastern US and into Canada.
American lotus is a perennial, and it is cold tolerant and heat tolerant. It can grow in any pond or slow moving stream that contains shallow water areas. It prefers water with a depth of about 12 inches. Germination can occur from the large lotus seeds. Tubers, or roots, are established in the mud, and long slender stems extend upward. Leaves and flowers are both emergent in that they grow above the water line.
Lotus flowers are fragrant, and yellowish white with rich gold centers. They open in the morning and close by late afternoon, then open again the next day.
Lotus is an edible plant and has a history as a food source. The large tuberous roots, the size of a human arm, were baked like sweet potatoes. The leaves were eaten like spinach, and the large seeds were ground into flour. Stems taste somewhat like beets and were usually peeled before being eaten.
There is a large world-wide industry of cultivating lilies and lotuses in water gardens. According to Dr. Jerry Parsons, Professor and Extension Horticulturist with Texas A&M AgriLife Extension, cultivation of these plants dates back as early as ancient Egypt. Today, anyone with determination and a little money can have a water garden.
In 2011, the 82nd Texas Legislature designated the water lily “Texas Dawn” as the official Texas State Water Lily. Texas Dawn is a hybrid developed by Texas resident Kenneth Landon, a world-renowned expert in the field of water lilies and the director of the International Water Lily collection in San Angelo.
Ducks and other wildlife utilize the large acorn like seeds of American lotus, and submerged portions of all aquatic plants provide some form of wetland habitat. Many of us have tried to pull a bass out of a group of water lilies or lotuses, and I’m sure others have had better luck than I did. Although there can certainly be benefits to lilies, lotuses, and other aquatic plants, they can also infest ponds to the extent that the pond is not functioning correctly.
So, while the rest of the world works hard to grow these plants, ranchers sometimes need to control populations in their stock ponds. Once it gets a foot hold, American lotus can spread aggressively in wetland areas.
The primary issue that encourages American lotus, and most other water weeds, is shallow water. Look closely at a good livestock pond and you will find that the deeper water is basically free of infestation. Any pond will have a certain amount of shallow water that encourages water weed growth, depending upon the terrain at the pond site and how the pond was constructed. Some ranchers who enjoy and utilize wetland habitat may prefer to have ponds with significant shallow water area.
Almost all livestock ponds have a certain life expectancy. Siltation, or movement of soil into the pond bottom through rainfall runoff, is a natural occurrence. How fast siltation occurs into each pond, and how deep the pond was to start with, determines the length of time that the pond will contain adequate depth for dependable water for livestock.
Ponds that develop infestations of water weeds over a large percent of the surface may not have adequate depth to remain a viable water source for livestock during drought periods, especially in western north Texas where evaporation rates are higher.
Mud, or silt, from the pond bottom, can be removed to deepen the water, but this is a very expensive process. It is often more economical to construct a new pond rather than try to remove the silt from an old one. Most of us do not have the funds to continually construct deep water livestock ponds, so we must try to keep existing structures functioning and providing good drinking water for livestock, for as long as we can. Control of pond weeds like American lotus may be necessary, and it can be accomplished.
There is currently no feasible biological control. American lotus can be cut and removed, but this process us usually temporary because lotus can reestablish from seeds and roots.
American lotus can be safely controlled by chemicals. This must be done carefully. If a pond containing a large amount of any pond weeds is treated to remove all of the vegetation, a fish die-off could occur. When the dying weeds decompose, they use up the oxygen in the water and fish can suffocate. If possible, treat only a portion of the area, wait about two weeks, and treat another portion.
Farm & Ranch
Tracks in the Sand
This morning, I walked out into my arena and noticed something that gave me pause. The roping steers had been in there the day before, and even though the ground was wide and level, the sand carried their story. Hoofprints crossed every direction, but in several spots, the same trail was pressed deeper than the rest. Twelve steers had been turned out, yet more than a few chose the exact same path, wearing it down until it stood out from all the other tracks.
Cattle are creatures of habit. Anyone who has spent time around them knows this. They like routine: the same feed, the same water trough, the same shade tree in the pasture. When they are turned loose, they rarely wander without purpose. More often than not, they move together, following the same course as the steer in front of them. There are reasons for this: efficiency, safety, instinct. Walking a beaten path conserves energy, and following the herd is their natural defense. Even in an arena with no real destination, those instincts come through. By the end of a short turnout, you will see the evidence, lines where they have chosen the easiest way to travel and stuck with it.
Out on the range, those lines last longer. Before fences and highways, cattle drives cut deep paths across the land. The Chisholm Trail, which carried herds north from Texas through Oklahoma into Kansas, was walked by millions of cattle in the late 1800s. More than a century later, faint traces of those trails remain, worn so deep by hooves and wagon wheels that the land still carries the mark. On ranches today, you can see the same effect in pastures where cattle walk the same lines between water and grazing. From the ground those trails might look like nothing more than dusty ruts, but from the air, they sometimes stand out as sharp lines winding through otherwise open fields. Cattle do not simply pass over the land; they shape it. Every step adds up.
That simple truth extends beyond livestock. We all make tracks. Our habits and routines are our trails, worn in by repetition, sometimes efficient, sometimes limiting. Like the cow paths, they can serve a purpose, keeping us steady and helping us move forward. But when repeated without thought, they risk becoming ruts, keeping us from stepping into new ground. History offers perspective here too. The old cattle trails built towns and economies, but once railroads and fences changed the landscape, those paths were no longer useful. Sticking to them would have meant going in circles. Progress required something new.
The Tracks We Leave
Standing in the arena, I thought about the kind of tracks I leave behind. Most of mine are not visible in the dirt. They are pressed into my daily life, how I work, the way I handle challenges, the example I set. Some are helpful and worth keeping. Others may have outlived their purpose. The difference comes in knowing when to stay in the track and when to step out of it.
Tomorrow I will drag the arena and smooth it all clean again. The next time the steers are turned in, they will make the same trails. That is their nature. But unlike them, I have a choice. I can decide which paths are worth walking, which ones to change, and what kind of tracks I want to leave for others who might follow.
Tracks tell a story. Sometimes they are only temporary, fading with the next rain. Other times they last for generations, reminders of where herds and people once walked. This morning, the cattle showed me again that even the smallest things on the ranch carry meaning. Their tracks in the arena were not just marks in the sand. They were a lesson: every step matters, and the paths we choose shape more than just the ground beneath our feet.
Farm & Ranch
Leopold’s Legacy: The Five Tools That Shaped Conservation
By Raenne Santos
Known as the father of wildlife management, Aldo Leopold’s teachings reshaped our understanding of conservation and our role in nature. His philosophy, rooted in ethics, ecology, and action, emerged in response to the environmental degradation of the early 20th century in the American West. Overgrazed pastures, eroding soils, and changing wildlife populations revealed the consequences of treating natural resources as limitless.
Recognizing these challenges, Leopold theorized a transformative approach to land stewardship, emphasizing that the land is not merely a commodity, but a community in which we all belong. His works, A Sand County Almanac and Land Ethic, are still referenced to this day by modern conservationists. In Land Ethic, he introduced a practical framework for wildlife management known as the Five Tools of Wildlife Management, which offers land stewards a structured approach to maintaining and restoring ecological balance.
Symbolizing brush management, the axe is one of Leopold’s tools for controlling invasive species, shaping habitats, and mitigating wildfire risks. By selectively removing vegetation, land managers can enhance biodiversity, create open spaces for native species, and maintain healthy ecosystems.
Representing grazing animals, the cow (when used properly) mimics the natural disturbances once provided by bison. Grazing animals promote healthy ecosystems by aiding in nutrient cycling and soil disturbance. Responsible grazing practices prevent overuse and contribute to sustainable land management.
The plow signifies mechanical disturbance and soil preparation, crucial for habitat restoration and agricultural productivity. Used strategically, it aids in cultivating crops and creating conditions favorable to wildlife. However, misuse can lead to erosion, requiring careful application in conservation efforts.
Fire, a powerful natural tool, plays a crucial role in maintaining biodiversity and landscape resilience. Land managers use prescribed fire to control invasive species, rejuvenate plant communities, and shape habitats. Fire promotes the natural cycles of ecosystems and supports species diversity.
The final tool, the gun, is used to manage game populations and control predators. During Leopold’s time, unregulated hunting contributed to species extinction and posed threats to others. Today, hunting is strictly managed through game laws and seasonal regulations to ensure sustainable populations.
Leopold’s Five Tools of Wildlife Management continue to influence conservation practices today. While techniques have evolved, the fundamental principles remain the same—balancing human involvement with ecological processes to sustain healthy ecosystems. His approach emphasizes the importance of working with nature rather than against it. By embracing ethical land stewardship, modern conservationists honor Leopold’s vision, ensuring that future generations inherit thriving landscapes.
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